Australia v Pakistan 3rd Quarter-Final Prediction & Betting Tips

This one is one sided match. Kangaroos should not face any hiccups in coming on top of fragile and unpredictable Pakistan. Australia's odds are not going to increase unless Pakistan dominates Aus. The only positive for Pakistan is their bowling and if it fails then they can pack their bags and go home. There is no way Pakistan can cope with Australia's fast bowling and score decent runs to defend it.

This is not a very high scoring ground. Only India managed to touch 300 score against, guess who, Pakistan and won the match batting first. Pakistan batting first and scoring 300+ can give them advantage and they might go on defending this total. Oh the other hand if Kangaroos score 300+ then Pakistan have no chance in chasing such big score.

Australia & Pakistan are set to play in the 3rd quarter final of the tournament; the winner of which will setup a mouth watering clash against India in the Semi Final next Thursday. India, after an early stutter battered Bangladesh into submission as they won their quarterfinal knockout convincingly by 109 runs earlier today. So then, while all the Indian fans are hoping for Pakistan to beat Australia, the home side themselves seem well oiled to break this subcontinent party in the making.

Australia are coming off the back of a few easy wins against 2 minnows. Their last testing game was against Sri Lanka who pushed them with their bowling. Australia are looking well oiled and rounded to beat Pakistan and make it to the Semis. However, Pakistan are mercurial. Writers have used it as a synonym, Pundits as a metaphor but Pakistan still do not change. After a woeful start to the World Cup with defeats against arch rivals India and and West Indies, Pakistan found their bearings with a shock win over South Africa. That really set them for the rest of the tournament. Pakistan then went on to dominate proceedings against the Associates. From then on in, we have seen a different Pakistan side in the tournament. Pakistan’s bowling has been a revelation, the trio of Wahab Riaz, Mohammad Irfan and Rahat Ali have all come to the party at the right time.

Australia on the other hand are looking red hot. Apart from a little stutter against their neighbours, which came after a break of 2 weeks, Australia have been tremendous. They have decimated all their opponents and won comfortably. Really, on paper, Australia are looking ominous and are by far the best team. Both teams have a fantastic bowling lineup but Australia’s batting and fielding ends up making the difference.

Head to Head

Unlike other teams in the last few days, Australia and Pakistan have faced off against each other quite a few times in the history of ODI cricket. The two teams have locked horns in 92 games thus far. Australia, needless to mention have won on 57 off those occasions with Pakistan winning 31 games. In the midst of all this, there was a thrilling tie and 3 other games which had no result.

Apart from this, in World Cup cricket the two teams have played each other on 8 occasions of which both teams have won 4 games apiece. Pakistan won their most recent encounter in a World Cup in 2011 at Colombo.

At the Ground

Both these teams have played multiple games against each other at this venue. They have clashed in 6 games here off which Australia have been the dominant side winning 5. Australia's record at Adelaide has been impeccable right through with them winning over 70% of every game they play here. They have won 32 out of the 47 matches they have played at the Adelaide Oval. Pakistan on the other hand have been near horrendous at this venue, winning only 4 off their 17 matches played here; one of which came against Ireland in this tournament. They also lost to India at this venue in their opening game of the World Cup.

Tournament Records

Until today, Mitchell Starc lead the wicket takers pack this World Cup; Mohammad Shami edged over after today’s quarter final against Bangladesh. Starc will be looking to wrestle the record back. Starc meanwhile has taken 16 wickets at a miserly average of 8 and a strike rate of 13. That is simply phenomenal. If he gets on song tomorrow, Sarfaraz Ahmed’s antics will prove to be a one time affair.

Of the batsmen in both these teams, only Misbah Ul Haq, finds himself in the top 10 run scorers list. This is largely due to the fact that Australia have had a game and a half short and on a couple of occasions bundled out oppositions in the tournament for cheap runs giving them very little to chase. Having said that, Misbah has been supremely consistent for the last couple of years and has carried his form into the tournament. Despite his naysayers and critics criticising his manner of play; he has been Pakistan’s mainstay and has dug them out of a hole single handedly on many an occasion.

It will be intriguing to see how both these stars from their respective teams contest against each other.

Current Form

Both teams have been playing well in the last few games, with Australia needless to mention looking the better unit. Australia look to have covered all facets of their game and with Shane Watson finding his feet in the middle order, the home team look to have taken care off most issues. Australia will be hoping for Finch to get back into striking form after his early century in the World Cup opener against England. Enroute to the Quarter Final, Australia have ensured that Aaron Finch, David Warner, Steve Smith, Michael Clarke, Shane Watson and Glen Maxwell have a century of half century to their name. Brad Haddin & James Faulkner have had a couple of decent hits out in the middle too. The bowling looks settled with Pat Cummins, Starc & Johnson leading the pace attack with Watson, Faulkner and Maxwell to do the rest of the bowling.

Pakistan meanwhile have been their mercurial self this tournament. After being obliterated by India and West Indies, they stuttered against Zimbabwe & shocked South Africa. Mohammad Irfan unfortunately is out of he tournament and Pakistan will look to ring in changes; perhaps bring in Ehsan Adil instead of Yasir Shah with the pitch having some green in it.

Australia have won 4 off their 5 games this World Cup (Includes one game that was washed out against Bangladesh)
Pakistan have won 4 off their last 6 games this World Cup

Pitch & Conditions

The pitch is not the usual Adelaide we know off. Instead, we could have something so much quicker and a lot more grassy. Wahab Riaz, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Johnson will be licking their fingers at the prospect of bowling on it. Reports have it that the pitch was wrapped up and covered with hessian prematch. This would be to retain its moisture offering some good nip to bowlers. Reverse swing would not be much of a spectacle tomorrow as the wickets around it have been watered too; and hence they won’t be dry.

Should be a fine day at Adelaide with a temperate of 28 degrees forecasted.

Players to watch out for

Mitchell Starc has been Australia’s star this tournament. After all the talk of Mitchell Johnson, leading up to the tournament, Starc has showcased why he’s such a wonderful One Day International bowler. His swing at pace has really troubled batsmen. I would really fancy him to nip a couple out early if he gets to bowl to a few right handers early on in the piece.

Glen Maxwell has been in ominous striking form this tournament. He has hit bowlers off their length and made perfect use of the batting power play whenever he has been given the opportunity. He has hit in innocuous areas off the field giving the opposition captain lots to worry about.

If there is anyone who has matched up to Mitchell Starc’s speeds if not swing, it has been Wahab Riaz. Wahab has been really really quick this World Cup hitting upto speeds of 150 kmph on a regular basis. He has formed a potent bowling combination with Ali at the fag end of the innings to restrict batsmen. With Mohammad Irfan out of the tournament, Pakistan and Misbah Ul Haq, will be looking to Wahab to lead the way with the ball.

Prediction

A. Despite the wicket, both teams will be looking to bat first. Australia more so. Their way has always been to setup the game with bat in hand before the bowlers come in. Also, the bowlers coming in under lights would influence the decision of the two strong bowling teams. Having said that, Australia are very good with the bat too but batting first has been their way.

B. Australia should win this match comfortably, I would say. However, if ‘mercurial’ Pakistan wake up the right side of the bed tomorrow, Sarfaraz Ahmed or Shahid Afridi may just come off or maybe the bait of playing India in the semi-final may just bring out a different Pakistan.

C. Still, it’s Australia’s game to lose!