India v Bangladesh 2nd Quarter-Final Prediction & Betting Tips

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If Indians don’t come under pressure then no matter what challenges Bangladesh throws at their big neighbour Indian will win easily. India has better bowlers and all bowling department is covered. If it swings then India will dominate easily, if it spins then we have got 2 best spinners. BD has got some firepower but it’s not going to be enough to score 275.

Srilanka whacked BD all over the field and scored massive 332 at this very same ground and India defeated SA by scoring 300+. It’s high scoring ground and expect 300+ again if India bats first. BD will have trouble touching 300 score. India can chase any score.

If BD bats first and score decent runs let’s say 270+ then it will push India’s odds to about 2.0 and few early wickets odds will jump to 2.5 or so. That’s the point where you back India.

If India bats first then wait for at least 2 wickets to fall and then back India with whatever odds you can get. After Kohli walks in odds are not going up again as it’s all powerful lineup after that unless middle order collapses.

इंडिया जीतेगी आराम से। ढंग से भाव ले के लगाओ इंडिया पर। बंगाल की मछली बहुत छटपटाई लेकिन अब इसका यह आखिरी मैच होगा।

Sri Lanka are done and dusted then. South Africa got over their chokers tag and pummelled the Lankans ending the Mahela Jayawardene & Kumar Sangakkara partnership. It’s India next and they will take on a spirited Bangladesh at the ‘G’. Bangladesh have played a couple of decent games and are looking formidable. Their skipper Mashrafe Mortaza is back after the injury he suffered against England forced him to rest versus New Zealand.

India have had the near perfect tournament. They are 6 to nothing and would have taken a Quarter final against Bangladesh any day given a choice at the start of the tournament. As reports have it, Bangladesh too ironically would love to be playing a team like India at this stage. Instead of playing Australia, New Zealand or South Africa could blow them with pace and swing, India’s bowlers work their way into the game a lo more giving Bangladesh a better chance. Also, India despite having a strong batting line up aren’t AB de Villiers or Glen Maxwell who will power quick centuries. This gives Bangladesh their best chance in their first shot at getting to the semifinals of a World Cup.

To Bangladesh, their spinners and middle order hold the key. How they fare against India’s ominous batting line up and Mohammad Shami in particular in the bowling department will decide the course of the match. The toss will have a crucial role to play too because if Bangladesh manage to put a score on the board; the situation could make for a tricky Indian run chase.

Head to Head

India and Bangladesh have played 28 ODIs thus far. Naturally, India have been the dominant force over the years but Bangladesh have surprised a few times. Ever since the coming of players like Mashrafe Mortaza, Shakib Al Hasan, Tamim Iqbal; Bangladesh have always put in spirited performances.

In the 28 ODIs that India and Bangladesh have played in, India have won 24 times with Bangladesh winning 3 encounters. 1 game was abandoned due to poor weather conditions.

At World Cups though, both these teams have clashed twice. This has happened in the 2007 and 2011 World Cup. In ’07, Bangladesh shocked a extremely experienced and strong Indian team including the likes of Sachin Tendulkar, Sourav Ganguly, Rahul Dravid, Virender Sehwag and beat them on that late Caribbean evening. India avenged sweetly in 2011 when Virender Sehwag and Virat Kohli batted Bangladesh out of that match.

At the Ground

Both these teams are yet to play each other at this venue but here’s what their record looks like on this ground previously. Bangladesh have only played here once, against Sri Lanka earlier in the World Cup and looked to be overawed by the occasion. Fielders were lost and the captain struggled with field placings due to the size of the ground. Hence, it comes as no surprise that Bangladesh were seen running in from the deep to take some catches during their training session on Thursday.

India on the other hand have played plenty of games at this venue and have a near 50% Win Loss record at this venue with 9 wins off their 19 attempts.

Tournament Records

Bangladesh batsman Mahmadullah features in the top run getters this tournament. With his back to back centuries against England & New Zealand, he has a tally of 344 runs from the five games Bangladesh have played in this World Cup. Ironically, that is more runs than what Shikhar Dhawan, Virat Kohli or for that matter, any Indian has scored in the tournament. Mahmadullah also features in the tournament’s top run getters.

This game marks Bangladesh’s first knockout match in a top flight ICC tournament. The expectations have reduced and their relaxed demeanour could be seen during training sessions. India are playing their 10th, under MSD. Dhoni has won 8 out of the 9 matches and is at par with former Aussie skipper, Ricky Ponting.

As mentioned earlier, no Indian batsmen in this squad has scored a century in an ICC knockout game.

Here’s a shocker of a stat; 'India have never beaten Bangladesh in the month of March'

Current Form

Both sides have been playing good cricket over the past few games. Bangladesh have played well against two of the rather formidable sides in their group, England & New Zealand. The game against Australia was washed out at the Gabba. Despite Bangladesh’s loss against New Zealand, the fact that they could run one of the favourites of the tournament close will give them immense confidence leading into this encounter.

India have been playing fantastic cricket and have turned around what was a forgettable tour. They have bounced back impressively with a 6-0 record at the pool stage. After comfortably decimating all their opponents in the group stage, the only thing you would say India’s short of, is, being tested in a crunch situation. Both of India’s testing encounters against South Africa and Pakistan came early on in the World Cup. Nonetheless, they are seasoned campaigners and you would expect them to get the job done in tomorrow’s game.

India - 6 / 6 games won this WC
Bangladesh - 3 / 6 games won this WC (Includes one game that was washed out against Australia)

Pitch & Conditions

It’s another drop-in at the MCG. This is the same wicket being used that Bangladesh played on against Sri Lanka earlier in their Pool A encounter. It is expected to be beautifully straw coloured and a batting beauty. Having said that, the weather is expected to intervene perhaps in the afternoon or evening session. The MET department have predicted a 70% chance of shower. However, we could expect that to clear soon enough or we might have a reduced game.

The morning is supposed to be sunny with a max temperature of 31C.

Players to watch out for

Just when you thought it had to be Mushfiqur Rahim who had to take Bangladesh’s batting through; comes a champion in Mahmudullah. Mahmadullah has been incredible over the last 2 games. Against two top notch bowling attacks (Yes, let us just go with top class for England to accentuate Mahmadullah’s cause), he has scored back to back hundreds in trying conditions. The conditions against a fantastic bowling unit, in New Zealand, were not the easiest to score a hundred in and to Mahmadullah’s credit, he did it with ease. Bangladesh never had a World Cup hundred prior to Mahmadullah’s against England and now they seem to be flowing off his bat. If he could get going tomorrow, India may have some serious reason to worry.

Virat Kohli has always been India’s big match player and while no Indian in this squad has gotten a hundred in a WC knockout game, VK could be the man to do it. Kohli got his 5th ODI hundred the last time India played Bangladesh in a World Cup encounter 4 years ago. It is remarkable how he has racked up 17 more in the last 4 years. If Virat can showcase the class he did against Pakistan in the team's World Cup opener, India should have a field day on the ground.

Tamim Iqbal has been off colour this tournament. He is one of Bangladesh’s most experienced cricketers and apart from one score of note, he has had a dry World Cup by his standards. Having said that, Tamim has been India’s nemesis in Tests & ODIs. In the 2007 World Cup, as a 17 year old, he smashed the Indian bowlers all over the park for a quick fire 50 and repeated that against India in 2011. Bangladesh will be desperately hoping he finds his feet in tomorrow’s encounter.

Rubel Hossan & Shakib Al Hasan both have 7 wickets each this tournament. Rubel has kept the pace up making the high 140s on a consistent basis. Shakir has backed him well in the middle overs tidying things up when required. This bowling duo will look to get as many wickets possible for their team.

Prediction

A. India should have an easy day in the park. Their team looks way too strong for Bangladesh. However, I expect a strong fight from the Bangladeshi Tigers.

B. Expect India to bat first if they win the toss and bat Bangladesh out of the game instead of have a nervy time chasing if Bangladesh can score something considerable like they did against England & NZ. India would not want to buckle under pressure in a knockout game the way England did. Do expect both teams to go out there and bat first if they win the toss.

C. Having said this, as mentioned before, India are still to beat Bangladesh in the month of March. Well, who knows if that is to change! South Africa changed their luck, can India do theirs in Month March?

So, it’s mid innings time and after a slow start India have plundered 300. Bangladesh will be quite disappointed as they allowed India to get to 302, despite having them short of 100 in their 25th over. India had lost 3 wickets too at that point in time. Bangladesh skipper was pretty animated as he berated young quickie Taskin Ahmed pretty openly in the closing stages of the innings. Nonetheless, here are a few stats to think about as we move towards the chase. Should help make some calls!

A. India have won a remarkable 85% off their games defending a score in excess of 300 outside Asia. This record stands despite India playing formidable opponents, in the likes of, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa outside Asia & Bangladesh will really find this a hard task. The situation and the score fits into MS Dhoni’s captaincy perfectly well who can then turn on the screws.

B. India though, have lost 2/3rd of their games when the opposition has dismissed Virat Kohli for a score of less than 15 and Bangladesh managed to do that today when they got Kohli fishing for one wide outside the line of off stump.

C. Bangladesh have had a run rate of 5.4 against India in the matches leading up the this World Cup since 2011. They will need to up that significantly if they must be competitive in this encounter.

D. Bangladesh will have to rewrite the history books if they get to this total as no team ever in the history of the game has chased a score of 300 + in One Day International cricket at the MCG.

E. India have taken 60 wickets in their 6 games this World Cup. If they continue that run, Bangladesh will stand no chance to make the semi final off this tournament. New Zealand and South Africa have 57 & 56 respectively.

F. India continued their fantastic run of not losing a single wicket in the batting Powerplay of this World Cup. Every other team has lost at least one wicket. Wonder if this is a deliberate ploy so they can accelerate with wickets in hand in the final 10 overs of the innings.

G. Mohammad Shami has bowled beautifully this World Cup. He has taken 15 wickets in the 5 games he has played at an average of 12.6. This is the best average for any Indian bowler to have played in a World Cup. (Min 5 overs)

H. Bangladesh’s opening partnership has been paltry to say the least. They average 11.8 which is the worst for any Test Nation at this World Cup. Bangladesh will be praying for Tamim Iqbal to find his feet against one of his favourite oppositions.

I. Having said that, the Bangladeshi middle order average over 52 per wicket, which is the second best for any team in this competition. Their middle order batsmen have plundered two centuries and five cities amongst themselves.

J. And finally, Bangladesh’s trump card premiere batsman, Mahmadullah has scored 344 runs which is the highest by a Bangladeshi batsman in any ODI series. Back that up with a couple of centuries. Good time, no?

Tigers almost got us. Umpiring let BD down so did their fielding and pressure of such big occasion. We must praise BD bowling which was very impressive in the beginning of innings and the last over. Rohit's century was due and I expected it to come against minnows ;) He is master of smashing weaker teams.