Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

Preview

Haydn Cunningham Mar 07, 2016 @ 06:03 pm

Dortmund faced Bayern Munich on Saturday and not many would’ve predicted the two heavyweights playing out a goalless draw. Bayern Munich had the majority of possession but both sides were wasteful in front of goal when chances presented themselves. It was a massive chance for Dortmund to bridge the gap to just 2 points. Just a week ago it stood at 8 points but Munich’s surprise home defeat to Mainz now makes for a thrilling finale in the Bundesliga. Tommy Tuchel was without Shinji Kagawa for the Munich clash but still named the formidable trio of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marco Reus and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. But it was the visitors who went closest to scoring as Arturo Vidal hit the crossbar for Bayern Munich. Munich will certainly be the happier of the two having kept the 5 point advantage over Dortmund and they’ll now be confident of holding them off for the next 9 games to seal another Bundesliga title.

Mainz meanwhile were going quietly about their business under the radar but that all came crashing down when they went to the Allianz Arena and became the first side to take any points from Munich this season. That was on top of the 3-1 victory over Bayer Leverkusen the week before and they’re now in 5^th position. A European place would be a dream for the club but they face considerable pressure from Borussia Monchengladbach, Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen. They were held to a goalless draw by newly promoted Darmstadt on Saturday in a game where they had 10 men for the final 30 minutes. It was the first time in 7 matches that they failed to break the opposition down. Mainz have been in sensational form in 2016 having won 5, drawn 1 and lost 2 but they seem to up their performance against the bigger sides having beaten Monchengladbach, Schalke, Leverkusen and Munich this year and lost to Ingolstadt and Hoffenheim. 

Borussia Dortmund have won the past 10 out of 11 meetings against Mainz and are odds on favourites with the bookies to make it 11 from 12. Dortmund have conceded just a measly two goals in ten matches and defensively they’re proving a real unit with Mats Hummels the leader at the heart of it. However, Mainz have managed to score 2 goals at Signal Iduna Park on the previous 2 encounters and given their recent form they’ll be brimming with confidence despite the setback against Darmstadt. 

Dortmund have never lost at home to Mainz and are also unbeaten at home in the league this season. Mainz have 17 points, 17 goals and have conceded 17 goals away from home in the league so far but have travelled to the likes of Bayern Munich and won. Dortmund have won more aerial duels (55%) than any other side in the league. Mainz are arguably the side that has to work the hardest to score in the league having only been the beneficiaries of a penalty once this season and haven’t benefitted from any own goals this season.

Shinji Kagawa is the only notable absentee for Tommy Tuchel whilst their opponents will be missing Giulio Donati after the Italian defender was given a straight red card against Darmstadt and will now face 3 matches on the side lines. Mainz’s biggest threat upfront is still injured as Japanese international Yoshinori Muto is still injured after already missing a month of action. Sokratis Papastathopoulos isn’t too far away from making a full recovery for the home side. 

Borussia Dortmund

Stats: W-18 L-3 D-4

Recent Form – DWWWW

Mainz

Stats: W-12 L-9 D-4                                          

Recent Form - DWWLW

Head-to-head record:

Possible Line-ups

Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1) – Burki, Schmelzer, Bender, Hummels, Piszczek, Geigl, Gundogan, Durm, Mkhitaryan, Reus, Aubameyang

Mainz (4-5-1) – Karius, Balogun, Hack, Bussmann, Bell, Baumgartlinger, Frei, De Blasis, Malli, Jaro Samperio, Cordoba

Injury List/Suspended Players

Borussia Dortmund – Kagawa (inj), Papastathopoulos (inj)

Mainz – Donati (sus), Muto (inj), Bengtsson (inj)

League Positions